Archives: Articles

Using Climatological Data to Identify Locations with Viticultural Potential in Colorado

Authors: Peter E. Goble, Horst W. Caspari, and Russ S. Schumacher
Volume: Volume 2023, No. 1
DOI: https://doi.org/10.46275/JOASC.2023.04.001
Abstract: Western Colorado’s warm, dry summers and access to mountain river water for irrigation create ideal conditions for the growth of wine grapes, specifically cultivars of the European grape species Vitis vinifera. The largest limiting factor to Vitis vinifera production is nocturnal temperatures cold enough to damage crops, or Low Temperature Injury Events (LTIEs). LTIEs require producers to undergo the time-and-cost prohibitive venture of retraining vines. Eastern Mesa County Colorado has sustained large-scale grape production due to the area’s relatively mild cold season weather. Areas with similarly hospitable conditions may exist elsewhere within western Colorado. Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model (PRISM) temperatures (1981-2020) were used to estimate the frequency of LTIEs across Colorado, and identify trends associated with a warming climate. In the interest of comparing PRISM temperatures to observations over actual vineyards, thermometers were placed on current vineyards in Montezuma County from 2016 to 2020. Findings suggest additional areas of opportunity for Vitis vinifera production exist in Colorado, particularly western Montezuma County, and western Mesa and Montrose Counties. Like eastern Mesa County, these areas experience a LTIE in fewer than 20 % of years. PRISM data also suggest southeast Colorado is becoming more hospitable for Vitis vinifera growth over time. Temperature measurements in Montezuma County during potentially lethal weather events compared closely with PRISM data, with a mean absolute difference of 1.8 ˚C. This comparison suggests PRISM is a reliable tool for identifying areas of opportunity in spite of western Colorado’s complex terrain.
Link: https://stateclimate.org/pdfs/journal-articles/2023_1-Goble.pdf

To Plant or Not to Plant? A Soil Temperature Climatology for the Northern and Central Plains

Authors: Olivia G. Campbell, Natalie A. Umphlett, and Crystal J. Stiles
Volume: Volume 2022, No. 1
DOI: http://doi.org/10.46275/JOASC.2022.01.001
Abstract: Sufficient soil temperatures at the time of planting are essential for a well-established stand in both large-scale agriculture and recreational home gardening. Planting too early in the season increases the risk for frost damage and slow seedling growth while planting too late risks not reaching the required growing degree days (GDD) for plant maturity. In this study, a climatology of the date in which soils reach critical temperature thresholds for crops was developed for the Northern and Central Plains. At least 15 years of soil temperature data from 155 automated stations from six different networks were utilized in this study. Results showed that Minnesota consistently reached each soil temperature threshold last, while south-central Colorado reached each threshold first, with differences in air temperature and soil moisture likely playing a role. These results were incorporated into an online tool that both professional and recreational agriculturists can use to determine when soil temperatures are best for planting. It will also help put soil temperatures into context based on a climatological average
Link: https://stateclimate.org/pdfs/journal-articles/2022_1-Campbell.pdf

Status and Climate Applications of the 19th Century Forts and Volunteer Observer Database

Authors: Nancy E. Westcott, Jason Cooper, Karen Andsager, Leslie A. Stoecker, and Karsten Shein
Volume: Volume 2021, No. 2
DOI: http://doi.org/10.46275/JOASC.2021.09.001
Abstract: The Climate Data Modernization Program Forts and Volunteer Observer Database (CDMP-Forts) currently consists of 450 keyed and 355 quality-controlled stations for the period 1788–1892, reaching across the United States. In conjunction with the Global Historical Climate Network (GHCN) daily data, this resource is invaluable for examining 19th century weather and climate in the United States. CDMP-Forts is incomplete, however, with a considerable amount of data remaining to be digitally transcribed and quality controlled. It is the intent of this paper to provide an overview of the processes involved in rescuing these data and to show important ways these data can be used and the considerations that may have to be taken to create meaningful analyses. Finally, the dataset is placed in the context of other global datasets and efforts to rescue historical weather data.
Link: https://stateclimate.org/pdfs/journal-articles/2021_2-Westcott.pdf

Making sense of flash drought: definitions, indicators, and where we go from here

Authors: Joel Lisonbee, Molly Woloszyn, Marina Skumanich
Volume: Volume 2021, No. 1
DOI: http://doi.org/10.46275/JOASC.2021.02.001
Abstract: The topic of “Flash Drought” is rapidly gaining attention within both the research and drought management communities. This literature review aims to synthesize the research to-date and provide a basis for future research on the topic. Specifically, our review is focused on documenting the range of definitions of “flash drought” being proposed in the research community. We found that the term first appeared in the peer-reviewed literature in 2002, and by 2020 has become an area of active research. Within that 18-year span, “flash drought” has been given 29 general descriptions, and 20 papers have provided measurable, defining criteria used to distinguish a flash drought from other drought. Of these papers, 11 distinguish flash drought as a rapid-onset drought event while eight distinguish flash drought as a short-term or short-lived, yet severe, drought event and one paper considers flash drought as both a short-lived and rapid onset event. Of the papers that define a flash drought by its rate of onset, the rate proposed ranges from 5 days to 8 weeks. Currently, there is not a universally accepted definition or criteria for “flash drought,” despite recent research that has called for the research community to adopt the principle of rapid-intensification of drought conditions.
Link: https://stateclimate.org/pdfs/journal-articles/2021_1-Lisonbee.pdf

Glen Conner Memorial

Authors: Stuart A. Foster
Volume: Volume 2020, No. 3
DOI: http://www.doi.org/10.46275/JoASC.2020.12.001
Abstract: Doral Glen Conner, founder of the Kentucky Climate Center and State Climatologist Emeritus, died peacefully in his home on January 6, 2020, at the age of 89. He was born, raised, and died in rural Allen County, Kentucky, a place that he treasured, but his life was an adventure that took him around the world. The son of Payton Ham Conner and Nellie Helen Weaver Conner, Glen was born on March 30, 1930.
Link: https://stateclimate.org/pdfs/journal-articles/2020_5-Foster.pdf

The Flash Drought of 1936

Authors: Eric D. Hunt, Jordan I. Christian, Jeffrey B. Basara, Lauren Lowman, Jason A. Otkin, Jesse Bell, Karla Jarecke, Ryann A. Wakefield, Robb M. Randall
Volume: Volume 2020, No. 4
DOI: http://www.doi.org/10.46275/JOASC.2020.11.001
Abstract: An exceptional flash drought during the spring and summer of 1936 led to extreme heat waves, large losses of human life and significant reductions of crop production. An analysis of historic precipitation and temperature records shows that the flash drought originated over the southeastern United States (U.S.) in April 1936. The flash drought then spread north and westward through the early summer of 1936 and possibly merged with a flash drought that had developed in the spring over the northern Plains. The timing of the flash drought was particularly ill-timed as most locations were at or entering their climatological peak for precipitation at the onset of flash drought, thus maximizing the deficits of precipitation. Thus, by early July most locations in the central and eastern U.S. were either in drought or rapidly cascading toward drought. The weeks that followed the 1st of July were some of the hottest on record in the U.S., with two major heat waves: first over the Midwest and eastern U.S. in the first half of July and then across the south-central U.S in the month of August. The combination of the flash drought and heat wave led to an agricultural disaster in the north central U.S. and one of the deadliest events in U.S. history.
Link: https://stateclimate.org/pdfs/journal-articles/2020_4-Hunt.pdf

Tie-Breaking Methodology for the Assessment of Science Olympiad Events

Authors: F. Adnan Akyuz, Guy Hokanson, Tanya Lynn Akyuz
Volume: Volume 2020, No. 1, 9 Jan 2020
DOI: http://www.doi.org/10.46275/JOASC.2020.01.001
Abstract: Science Olympiad events are annually conducted competitions that cover a variety of science disciplines spanning biology, earth science, chemistry, physics, engineering, and technology. Each event addresses the knowledge of science concepts, as well as the application of these concepts, along with the necessary process skills to participate in the National Science Olympiad Tournament at the end of May of each year. In 2019, the meteorology event was conducted in Division B (Middle Schools). Fifty questions were prepared before the events in the North Dakota state competition to cover topics ranging from the Earth’s modern atmosphere to weather forecasting and temperature indices. The North Dakota Meteorology event facilitators used the Turning Technologies’ student response system to automate the scoring to minimize manual grading error and to eliminate any ties in score consistently for all competitors. Breaking multiple ties by manual grading is a difficult task considering that the scores need to be turned in as soon as the tests end. Additionally, the Olympic rules do not allow any ties and ask the event facilitators to turn in the score sheets with each team awarded unique scores. In other words, the facilitators are expected to come up with their own way to resolve the ties, leading to inconsistencies in methodologies among the events. This paper focuses on breaking ties based on the difficulty level of a question in such a way that the more difficult the question is, the more points are awarded for the team in an automated fashion. The authors believe that the method described here is a simple but useful method that will save the facilitators time and provide an error-free, and most importantly a consistent grading system that is designed to eliminate the tie of scores among the competing teams. Furthermore, the tie-breaking methodology described in this paper and the publicly available score sheet, which could be adapted for use even if one does not have Turning Points technology, have the potential to lead to more consistent scoring in any of the Science Olympiad events across the country.
Link: https://stateclimate.org/pdfs/journal-articles/2020_1-Akyuz.pdf

THE PAST AND FUTURE OF CLIMATE-RELATED SERVICES IN THE UNITED STATES

Authors: Stanley A. Changnon
Volume: Volume 2007, No. 1, 1 Jun 2007
DOI: http://www.doi.org/10.46275/JoASC.2007.06.001
Abstract: Climate information has been the foundation upon which the nation’s weather-sensitive activities and infrastructure have been developed over the past 200 years. By 1970, climate services had begun to move to a new level of recognition and ever higher value to the climate-sensitive sectors of the nation. The past four decades have seen a series of scientific advances and technological changes that have vastly enhanced the provision of climate information. Atmospheric scientists created major improvements in weather-sensing instruments, in data quality and its archival, in the ease of accessing data and climate information, and in the generation of user-friendly climate products. Coupled with these advances have been national and global economic conditions and government policies that have acted to greatly increase the demand for climate products. On the government side, there has been establishment of state climatologists in all states, a national network of six regional climate cen ters, and an enhanced national data center. On the business side, there has been a rapid expansion into climatology, bringing new climate-based products and services to a vast array of climate-sensitive businesses and government agencies. However, not all aspects of climate services are at an optimum level. Five limitations need future attention to achieve optimum usage of climate information: better climate training; stabilization of weather/climate measurements; enhanced outreach to users; better information on climate impacts; and knowledge of effects of climate change. Regardless, provision of climate data and information is the oldest atmospheric sciences activity in service to society and its most successful.
Link: https://stateclimate.org/pdfs/journal-articles/2007_1-Changnon.pdf

AGRICULTURAL CLIMATOLOGY

Authors: Kenneth G. Hubbard
Volume: Volume 2007, No. 2, 2 Jun 2007
DOI: http://www.doi.org/10.46274/JoASC.2007.06.002
Abstract: Agricultural Climatology can play a role in decisions related to “What Crop Should I Plant?”, “When Should I Plant?”, “What Hybrid Should I Plant?”, “What is Happening with Crops in other Parts of the World?”, and “Where Should the Feedlot be Located?”. There are a host of other questions that Agricultural Climatology can help to answer including: “What Seeding Density Should I Choose?”, “What is the Optimal Fertilizer Treatment?”, “How do I Choose Effective Pest Treatment?”, “When should I conduct aerial spraying?”, “Is Irrigation an Effective Option?”, “Can I Grow a Second Crop?”, “Will an On-the- Farm Wind Energy Plant be Cost Effective?”, “Where is the Optimal Location of a new Ethanol Plant?”, “Is the Duration of the Growing Season Changing?”, and “Is the Likelihood of Heat Stress Changing?”. For Agricultural Climatology to reach its potential with respect to these and other decisions federal investments and commitments are needed. First and foremost the federal government must commit to supporting data gathering networks. Secondly, the federal institutions must support the infrastructure necessary to archive and disseminate the basic data. Quality Control/Assurance must be standardized between agencies and institutions and any changes to existing data sets should be synchronized so that all parties have the “best” available data. A suite of standardized products should be supported so that the data can be provided to potential users in the agricultural sector in formats that are readily used.
Link: https://stateclimate.org/pdfs/journal-articles/2007_2-Hubbard.pdf